Iran’s Catch 22 Post Fordow Bust Up

Irate Iran is like Biden: Always chooses WRONG road. Its nuke dream now pissed on by Israel & US, it’s threatening to shutdown Hormuz Strait to shipping so global oil prices soar. Yet, thar’s oil aplenty & biggest loser in end beside itself would be allies China & Russia.

Even before both Israel & Iran broke their ceasefire agreement before it started, the WSJ editorial board opined as much after Iran’s Parliament voted over the weekend to close the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea passage out of the Persian Gulf. Noted the editors at the time, “If the regime does this, it will be consistent with Iran’s recent behavior (as well as No. 46’s), which is to go for its own jugular.” Fortunately for Iran, the paper has also noted, its leaders are (still) likely to take their time weighing options to bring “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.” And, that’s largely because much of their power to attack its real & imaginary satanic enemies has been stripped away by recent events. Unfortunately, those leaders consist of the Ayatollah & Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp, and they have historically proven to be as irrational as extremists can get. And, that means they’ll likely come up with something self-defeatingly stupid aka, at least, put on a show of harassing the Hormuz Strait to save face. Enter the Houthis.

As the WSJ reminded, “The world supply of oil is more diverse than it was 20 yrs ago, thanks in part to American frackers. Some Gulf oil can also [now] move via pipeline from Saudi Arabia.” Meanwhile, “China would be one of the biggest losers ... as much of its oil comes from the Gulf.” As for Iran dusting off those speedy patrol boats, drones & missiles from shore, they’d now have to dodge the US Navy that’s nearby in force as well as Israel’s bag of Iranian horror. Sec of State Rubio told CBS Face the Nation on Sunday, Iran’s trying to close the Strait would be “suicidal” but not just because of the military realities. Indeed, the whole world would want to bomb them next rather than pay more for oil. So?

Davd Soul