Iran Running Out of Oil as well as Luck?

A stunning revelation from the Israel-Iran War is oil prices didn’t spike to high heaven as predicted so it may open up possibility of all-out attack on Iran’s No. 1 money-maker from sales to China & Russia, i.e., to end the conflict faster than a match held to a can of Pennzoil.

At least, that seemed to be the WSJ editors’ take on, “The Oil Price Spike That Wasn’t.” The fear holding Israel back from attacking Iran’s oil fields, production facilities and storage depots (and the US from supporting such a move) was ostensibly Iran’s ability to retaliate against US allies’ oil industries in the Middle East or by way of shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. However, the WSJ now opined, is that “global production is well placed to cope with [any] Iranian disruption.” As the editors noted: “Saudi Arabia has been producing more, as have Guyana, Brazil and Canada. US production hit a record 13.5 million barrels a day in March ...” Meanwhile, as the paper also has noted in a separate op ed, both China and Russia have grown addicted to “cheap” Iranian oil and if that were suddenly to be cut off even their limited “support” for Iran might likewise likely go up in smoke.

The lesson for President Trump? Concluded the WSJ, it’s that “oil prices shouldn’t influence strategic decisions about whether to help Israel win its war or whether to further sanction Russia.” Putting it more bluntly, if Israel does go after the vulnerable Iranian oil industry (which can’t be protected inside a mountain like a nuke program can), nuclear deterrence may suddenly become a secondary goal for Washington as well as Tel Aviv and regime change may become their primary one ... with arguably relative ease.

Davd Soul