Depopulation Bomb vs Population Explosion

Letter to Ephesians: Some might do a double take at two economists who argue as global fertility rates drop at an alarming rate, more not fewer humans is key to the species’ ability to fight its decline. So, “more people is [always] a good thing in and of itself”?

George Ip’s WSJ article titled “The Depopulation Bomb” is based on a new book “After the Spike: Population, Progress and the Case for People” written by Dean Spears & Michael Geruso, University of Texas economists. As Ip explains, “If humanity’s existence were threatened by plague, nuclear war or environmental catastrophe, people would surely demand action. And, of course, many have with arguably mixed results. “But what if the threat came from our own, passive acceptance of decline ... This is not some theoretical curiosity: It is reasonable extrapolation of [already much publicized] globally declining fertility rates.” Yet, Ip says, “People aren’t demanding action. In fact, some think a smaller population is actually a good thing” based on conventional wisdom on & concerns with OVERpopulation that may result in such evils as mass starvation & migration, exposure to pandemics, environmental degradation, wars over limited natural resources & other downsides.

Maybe so. But Texas authors say also look at the real time fertility numbers alone. If, e.g., global fertility fell to the current US fertility rate of 1.6, world population will rise from 8B now to a peak of 10.2B in 2080 & then start to decline. “It will not fall to 6B or 4B or 2B & hold there,” they wrote. “Humanity could hasten its own extinction if birth rates stay too low for a long time.” The authors, says Ip, “aren’t predicting literal extinction, but compared to a stable world population, depopulation has serious downsides” like getting in the way of more brain power & innovative problem-solving ideas. History may back them up, considering all the practical problems the world population boom of the 20th Century triggered only to be addressed, if imperfectly, with the Industrial & Technology Revolutions.

Davd Soul